Again, the World Bank's Nigeria Development Update for October 2026, titled "Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities," has been reduced to a sensational headline. That is unfortunate, because the report is perhaps the most important document for ordinary Nigerians in the last three years.
It recognizes the fundamental success of the reforms in stabilizing Nigeria's Macro Economy. It says reforms have moved us from one phase of our problem to the next. That next phase is where the real work for citizens and governments begins.
*WHAT THE FACTS SAY*
What the numbers now say:is that in the first half of 2026, the Nigerian economy grew by 4.2 %, compared to 3.9 % in 2025 and 3.5 % in 2024. The Bank projects 4.4 % average growth till 2028. - rising.
Inflation, which was 27.6 % in January 2025, fell to 15.2 % in December 2025 - falling.
(National Coordinator, BATIFIED OBIDIENTS)
Gross external reserves rose from $45.5 billion in December 2025 to $53.8 billion in August 2026, the highest in five years. The current account surplus rose to $12 billion.
For the first time since 2019, Nigeria's poverty rate has stabilised. The Bank expects a gradual decline as growth now outpaces population growth. Note the relationship between population growth and poverty.
These are not small achievements for an economy that in 2023 was spending 97 % of its revenue on debt service and had almost empty reserves.
*HOW DID IT HAPPEN ?*
The report confirms that federation revenue rose by 69 % in real terms between 2023 and 2025. The main beneficiaries were not Abuja alone, but the 36 states. State governments increased capital spending by a whopping 151 % in real terms.
In other words, the painful decisions of the last three years -1. Removal of petrol subsidy, 2. Unification of the foreign exchange market, and 3. Stopping Ways and Means financing - have created fiscal space.
The Federal Government now collects more. States now collect more. We are no longer borrowing to pretend.
*THEN WHY ARE PEOPLE SUFFERING ?*
In answering this question, the World Bank validates what most informed Nigerians know, first of which is that interest payments are still crushingly high. In the first half of 2026, Federal Government interest payment was N7.7 trillion, against revenue of N6.2 trillion - 124 % of revenue. This is because domestic interest rates remain high.
The second reason why ordinary Nigerians appear to be suffering and more important in the communities and households levels is that states have more money, but citizens are not feeling it.
The report shows states increased spending on roads and transport from 13 % to 27 % of their budgets. Spending on Education fell from 14.9 % to 12.1 %. Health spending remained flat at around 7 %.
So either, mother in Lafia, a farmer in Gusau, or a trader in Aba can now rightly ask: ...
"Dear Mr. Governor, Chairman and Honorable member of the House, our state now has three times more money than in 2023, why is my child's school still without chairs? Why is the primary health centre still without drugs?"
*CONTINUITY NOT CHANGE*
Building macro stability is like laying a foundation. It is noisy, expensive, and invisible. You don't live in the foundation. You live in the house built on it. The PBAT Federal Government of Nigeria spent 2023 to 2026 laying that foundation. To abandon it now for another experiment would mean we paid the price but did not build the house. It would be a hopeless and unforgivable waste born out of shortsightedness.
What the country needs in the next four years is not another macro shock. It needs micro delivery:
1. Lower food prices through agricultural productivity. - Secure farmlands
2. Cheaper transport through CNG. - expand state level CNG infrastructure
3. Jobs through low interest rates, which will only come if inflation continues to fall to the Bank's projected 12 percent by 2028. - more labour intensive state infrastructure projects.
4. And above all, holding states accountable for the 69 percent extra they now receive. - Citizens taking the 2027 Gubarnatorial elections and State assembly elections as seriously as the presidential elections
We have had the good fortune of a President who has already taken the difficult decisions and now we need a citizenry that shifts its demand from one center in Abuja to the 36 State Houses .
(National Coordinator, BATIFIED OBIDIENTS)
The next election should not be about whether to reform. That debate is over. The data says reform has stabilised the economy. It is wise and patriotic to maintain that stability.
The next election should be about: who can best translate macro stability into micro relief, and how do we force Governors and Local Governments to do their part?
The macro is secured. The micro must now be demanded. And that demand will be stronger if we keep the foundation and insist on the house.
SFB 14/10/2026
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